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Can the UK Avoid a Recession?

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Despite defying economists’ expectations, there appears to be a recession looming over the UK. In this video, we take a look into the factors that have prevented an economic downturn so far and how, with the stubborn inflation rate and higher-than-expected interest rate hikes, the future remains uncertain.

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1 – https://www.theguardian.com/global/2023/may/23/imf-uk-recession-tax-cuts-jeremy-hunt-debt
2 – https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/06/uk-avoided-recession-inflation-growth
3 – https://kpmg.com/uk/en/home/insights/2018/09/uk-economic-outlook.html
4 – https://helpforhouseholds.campaign.gov.uk/help-with-your-bills/
5 – https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9680/
6 – https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/april2023
7 – https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/april2023
8 – https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/investors-increase-bets-uk-recession-rate-hikes-bite-2023-06-22/
9 – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-17/britain-faces-recession-and-flood-of-job-losses-if-rates-hit-6?srnd=premium-uk
10 – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/26/rishi-sunak-warned-over-possible-uk-recession-in-2024
11 – https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1673700753779613698
12 – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLzWRh-0UJw&ab_channel=SkyNews
13 – https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/business-review/1993/brnd93lb.pdf
14 – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/26/jeremy-hunt-will-back-more-interest-rate-rises-even-if-it-pushes-uk-to-recession-bank-of-england
15 – https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2022079pap.pdf
16 – https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/business-review/1993/brnd93lb.pdf
17 – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/boe-set-to-tip-uk-into-recession-by-year-end-economists-say
18 – https://apnews.com/article/bank-of-england-interest-rates-inflation-a87fa97e33df6e79f7097cc2acd955fa
19 – https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/business/bank-of-england-inflation.html
20 – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/boe-set-to-tip-uk-into-recession-by-year-end-economists-say
21 – https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/22/bank-of-england-britain-recession/

00:00 – Introduction
00:59 – Why the UK Has Avoided a Recession So Far
03:36 – Can This Last?
08:07 – Sponsored Content

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44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. @josephdesousa-go5yt

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    anything can happen and if it happen the Bank of England plus others leaders are to blame besides the economy and few other systems has not been run properly with people that are not perhaps well qualified for such jobs besides when a Government is not very good or good people and country cannot succeed and things can go more easy gone wrong. also U.K.involve in conflicts such as Ukraine with a proxy war because of usa.wants it that way has not help anything to uk.and with no.peace or anyone talk about it made things worst and with bad relations with other nations like sanctions has all made it worst plus people become more poor in uk. and
    Europe plus in other countries all become a mess and on top the big companies and corporations plus medical drugs companies a
    nd greed with ignorance all is reasons of messes .

  2. @Anakin130506

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    If a recession comes the entire population must put in a vote of no confidence to every MP in every constituency. These people need held to account

  3. @hersdera

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.

  4. @mishuccet1

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Anticipating recession is way more worse than the actual recession.

  5. @terryj50

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    The uk seems to still be growing it’s the eu in recession. Looks to me like brexit is hurting the eu a lot more.

  6. @luther0013

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Since inflation is being driven but energy and food costs the way to deal with it is to increase the amount of renewable energy available by relaxing the building requirements and the government in some cases straight up paying people to put them in. Also upgrading houses with electric boilers so gas demand decreases. Finally on the food side turn green spaces into emergency farmland that specifically grows the grains that are in short supply due to the war in Ukraine.

  7. @sukipaul6499

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    ITS ALREADY IN RECESSION WTF ARE YOU ON

  8. @righteousbyfaithinChrist

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Joel 2:1-19
    [1]Blow a trumpet in Zion, And sound an alarm on My holy mountain! Let all the inhabitants of the land tremble, For the day of the Lord is coming; Surely it is near,
    [2]A day of darkness and gloom, A day of clouds and thick darkness. As the dawn is spread over the mountains, So there is a great and mighty people; There has never been anything like it, Nor will there be again after it To the years of many generations.
    [3]A fire consumes before them And behind them a flame burns. The land is like the garden of Eden before them But a desolate wilderness behind them, And nothing at all escapes them.
    [4]Their appearance is like the appearance of horses; And like war horses, so they run.
    [5]With a noise as of chariots They leap on the tops of the mountains, Like the crackling of a flame of fire consuming the stubble, Like a mighty people arranged for battle.
    [6]Before them the people are in anguish; All faces turn pale.
    [7]They run like mighty men, They climb the wall like soldiers; And they each march in line, Nor do they deviate from their paths.
    [8]They do not crowd each other, They march everyone in his path; When they burst through the defenses, They do not break ranks.
    [9]They rush on the city, They run on the wall; They climb into the houses, They enter through the windows like a thief.
    [10]Before them the earth quakes, The heavens tremble, The sun and the moon grow dark And the stars lose their brightness.
    [11]The Lord utters His voice before His army; Surely His camp is very great, For strong is he who carries out His word. The day of the Lord is indeed great and very awesome, And who can endure it?
    [12]"Yet even now," declares the Lord, "Return to Me with all your heart, And with fasting, weeping and mourning;
    [13]And rend your heart and not your garments." Now return to the Lord your God, For He is gracious and compassionate, Slow to anger, abounding in lovingkindness And relenting of evil.
    [14]Who knows whether He will not turn and relent And leave a blessing behind Him, Even a grain offering and a drink offering For the Lord your God?
    [15]Blow a trumpet in Zion, Consecrate a fast, proclaim a solemn assembly,
    [16]Gather the people, sanctify the congregation, Assemble the elders, Gather the children and the nursing infants. Let the bridegroom come out of his room And the bride out of her bridal chamber.
    [17]Let the priests, the Lord's ministers, Weep between the porch and the altar, And let them say, "Spare Your people, O Lord, And do not make Your inheritance a reproach, A byword among the nations. Why should they among the peoples say, 'Where is their God?'" Deliverance Promised
    [18]Then the Lord will be zealous for His land And will have pity on His people.
    [19]The Lord will answer and say to His people, "Behold, I am going to send you grain, new wine and oil, And you will be satisfied in full with them; And I will never again make you a reproach among the nations.

  9. @Dynasty1818

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    This has been asked some 4 or 5 times now over the last year or so, and we haven't hit one. So cut the clickbait cynicism crap. We're fine, get over it.

  10. @grahammidwinter9895

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Can the EU avoid a recession, is what you should be addressing.

  11. @dvidclapperton

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Don't completely rule out the UK entering recession.

    Growth forecasts of the UK recording growth have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt because so often they have proven to be totally inaccurate. It's far from a guarantee.

    Uk were very lucky to avoid a recession very recently by 0.1%. But peiple werw celebrating something akin to scraping a 0-0 draw at home to a team struggking near or at the bottom of the table as though it was a wonderful result when it reallty wasn't and it's not much better than losing 0-1 at home.

    NB:- 0-1 representing 0.1% contraction for 2 succeasive quarters

  12. @PhysicsGamer

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Cripes, three of the top four comments on the video are currently scams.

  13. @ForestFWhite

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Too late. Data can only reveal a recession in retrospect – nothing was avoided; numbers aren't accurate to now.

  14. @CptMark

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    If it wants to stop the inflation, no.

  15. @gaiustesla9324

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    depends if the banks make it happen or not.

    If you stop the economy on purpose and pretend it was for some other reason, then print trillions of pounds whilst people are sitting twidling their thumbs, give it out for them to spend in a few places that are "allowed" to operate or paying the banks for lending them the very money they're using to create debt which is then used to take more whilst you get less to "make up the deficit" which is self inflicted, directed, planned and accomplished.

    So basically it depends if you're willing to give up all the stuff these people want otherwise they will make the thing happen that will allow them to take all the things they want anyway.

    There is another answer, tell them to fuck off.

  16. @AndreSomers

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    It could, but since it’s policy to induce one to try to curb inflation, it won’t be stopped but welcomed.

  17. @eriktopolsky8531

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    UK CONSTANTLY KEEPS WINNING the contest for the Best country to LIVE/LEAVE in 2023 , 5th year straight , UK is PURE DISASTER GLOBALLY there is currently no other country that is more mismanaged than UK

  18. @dxd42

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    MORE MONEY TO AMERICAN PROXY'S WAR

  19. @annazimmerman69

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    It's not a recession – it's a permanent impoverishing. The UK has few options at this point, given that attempts to find an alternative source of cheap energy have failed. The best thing would be if the European governments stopped stoking the war, ate humble pie and accepted that their prosperity was inextricably tied to cheap Russian fuel and cheap Chinese products. Our political class are never going to do this, of course, because they are over-invested in helping the US prop up it's ebbing hegemony. Thus, the ordinary people get their throats cut whilst the corrupt and craven political class pursue a dying dream.

  20. @davidyolchuyev2905

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Aren’t they already in recession?

  21. @sillypuppy5940

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    It's kind of a prolonged sagging of the economy that avoids being a technical recession.

  22. @cylusbenjamin8436

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Britain can escape recession if it joins with Madagascar, South Africa, Mozambique etc to bring ice cubes from Antartica to the south africa. Then the cheap labour of southern Africa can improve the economy of Africa and Britain

  23. @johnrandle8365

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    The increase in mortgages for some were misled into believing rates would stay low indefinitely they had already factored that in , For other means credit cards loans possibly now we have energy food ULEZ in cities you can get caught out when changes occur and if you become maxed out how will get back on track .

  24. @alhassanmahmood5358

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Politicians all pricks who don't care that the population is high and the damage it is doing

  25. @occasionalquest

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    not correct … electricity prices was given rise because Moscovia withdraw all natural gas deliveries even those under long term contracts (future court cases) … Natural gas is evaluates in energy value kW (how much burning ut can be produced) so prices go up it as well for electricity because major supplier was left (30% on that period of time, currently replaced by other player ) market and governments agreed to buy what ever price was sorted out right now return to normal pre crisis level … if do not know fact do not report them by the way Gazprov even supply GB …

  26. @franco8flyline

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Rely on global supply… Proceeded to Brexit. Yeah well done Brits well done

  27. @BALDYMANS123

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    IT,S NOT A RECESSION. it the Great leap backwards. less disposable income since the 1950s food shops profiteering. The should be a a fixed price for the basic foods ie milk bread across the country. reduce VAT to 10%. (to get over seas investment renationalise gas electric and water company's the profits going back into the public funds

  28. @csibesz07

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    "Inflation is still incredibly high."
    Above 7.5%. Meanwhile in my country above 20%, Hungary…

  29. @FedericoVaccarezza

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Amazing explained!

  30. @tomsimson2817

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    We need to stop throwing money at ukraine
    Cut foreign aid
    Stop paying hotels to put up economic migrants and begin repatriation. Using the money we will save to begin to pay national debt. The lending to pay furlow combined with shutting the economy has caused the exasperation of this and drastic measures will be needed to pull it back. We cant allow the continued explotation of the British working class to sholder the piracy of this. From gas and electric dealers keeping the prices high even thought value has dropped to banks profitering from intrest only payments and fees for re negotiating morgages.

  31. @dallyuk

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    as i business i reduced by services due to higher energy prices

  32. @jasonlawlor1167

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    30m a day for hotels wtf

  33. @MEHOLE

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Pure luck? You mean global warming.

  34. @eatthisvr6

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    it all comes down to distribution of wealth, its now at a criminal level and its US who are screwed

  35. @sisyphusvasilias3943

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    UK has the worst Economic Collapse in forty years, tldr: "Here's why you shouldnt complain"
    Chinas Economy grows by 4.5% instead of predicted 5%, tldr: "China's economy is in Freefall, is this the end of China??"

  36. @sisyphusvasilias3943

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    NO! Because UK is in RECESSION, if you believe BoE that UK GDP growth is 0.1% I have a bridge to sell you

  37. @jasonwiese3794

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    I feel one Of the greatest challenges that we first timers face in the ma rket is that we end up losing all we have, making it difficult to find ourselves back to our feet. My biggest advice is to always seek the services of a professional just like I did when I ventured into it for the first time. Big thanks to Jasmine Querida. I now make huge profits by weekly through her services while still learning to stand on my own.

  38. @globalismoblackman

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    UK has been in recession since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008 as far as I am concerned. Fudge Economics 😅😅😂😂

  39. @user-wf4hy4ub7p

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Avoid a recession ?. What do they think we've beeen living through these past ten years ?. The pound in your pocket is now virtually worthless, savings in banks earn no interest though the banks make plenty of profit for themselves by investing YOUR money. How do they define a recession ?. Out of work people queuing up at soup kitchens and gathering on the streets in hopes of getting a days work ?.

  40. @ruthspense9318

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.

  41. @BenCG

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Post covid, our economy is trying to become lockdown-proof, so going out to buy shit we don't need is all there is to do now, hence no recession. That's my two pence.

  42. @stephanienguyen6992

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    NO. UK is next = BANKRUPTCY

  43. @MMerlyn91

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    If Germany can avoid it, so can the UK, but I don't see you guys talking about Germany, still haven't got over Brexit, have we?

  44. @Goggleberry123

    January 17, 2024 at 12:37 pm

    Absolutely it will go tits up big time if the B O E keep hammering there only nail 😀😀

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Politics UK

How Starmer Quietly Scrapped the Chagos Deal

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📰 Too Long: https://toolong.news/
🎉 TLDR Party:  https://toolong.news/pages/tldr-party
📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto

Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.

TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!

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New York Times Britain Puts Chagos Islands Deal on Hold
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/world/europe/britain-chagos-islands-uk.html

Parliament UK Chagos Islands Bill
https://bills.parliament.uk/publications/64104/documents/7552

Spectator How Trump Could Block the Chagos Deal
https://spectator.com/article/how-trump-could-block-the-chagos-deal/?edition=us

FCDO UK UK-US Exchange of Letters
https://treaties.fcdo.gov.uk/data/Library2/pdf/1967-TS0015.pdf

BBC News UK Shelves Chagos Deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04x1lg1lygo

The Guardian What are the Chagos Islands
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/20/what-are-chagos-islands-uk-mauritius-explainer

Sky News Chagos Islands Deal Pulled by Government
https://news.sky.com/story/chagos-islands-deal-pulled-by-government-after-trump-brands-it-act-of-great-stupidity-13530280

Telegraph Chagos Security Fears as China Cosies Up to Mauritius
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/16/chagos-security-fears-as-china-cosies-up-to-mauritius/

Telegraph Starmer Forced to Drop Chagos Bill After Trump Opposition
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/04/10/trump-opposition-forces-starmer-to-drop-chagos-bill/

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📰 Too Long: https://toolong.news/
🎉 TLDR Party: https://toolong.news/pages/tldr-party
📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto

Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.

TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!

SOURCES

Gov UK Know Your Rights Before the Renters’ Rights Act Kicks in

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Shelter Renters Rights Act: Changes for Private Tenants
https://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_advice/private_renting/renters_rights_act_changes_for_private_renters

Legislation UK Renters Rights Act
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2025/26/data.pdf

House of Commons Library Renters Reform in England: What’s Happening
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/renters-reform-in-england-whats-happening-and-when/

Society of Conservative Lawyers Renters Rights Act: Good Intentions, Poor Delivery
https://www.conservativelawyers.com/post/renters-rights-act-good-intentions-poor-delivery

FT Renters Rights Act Brings Big Changes to UK Property Market
https://www.ft.com/content/a06b749f-b914-49fe-9dcb-6b70aa3e3cc6?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Gov UK Guide to Renters Rights Act
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guide-to-the-renters-rights-act/guide-to-the-renters-rights-act#private-rented-sector-landlord-ombudsman

Gov UK Guidance on Tenants Who Want a Pet to Live With Them
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/renting-out-your-property-guidance-for-landlords-and-letting-agents/if-a-tenant-wants-a-pet-to-live-with-them

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Order a copy of our magazine Too Long: https://toolong.news/collections/tl007

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📰 Too Long: https://toolong.news/
🎉 TLDR Party: https://toolong.news/pages/tldr-party
📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto

Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.

TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!

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It now looking likely that the Prime Minister will still be in post for at least the next few months but what changed? How did Starmer claw back some time?

📰 Too Long: https://toolong.news/
🎉 TLDR Party:  https://toolong.news/pages/tldr-party
📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto

Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.

TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!

SOURCES

Unheard Labour MPs should get rid of Starmer
https://unherd.com/2026/03/labour-mps-should-get-rid-of-starmer-before-its-too-late/

The Times Can Starmer Rely on a Good War?
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/starmer-leadership-challenge-labour-jqpknpspf

The Independent Starmer’s popularity boosted by Iran war
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-trump-uk-iran-us-war-poll-b2947803.html

YouGov What Do the Public Think of Starmer’s Handling of the Iran War?
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54428-what-do-the-public-say-about-keir-starmers-handling-of-britains-response-the-us-iran-conflict

The Guardian MPs Wary of Moving Against Starmer While War is Raging
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/30/mps-wary-of-move-against-starmer-while-war-is-raging

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