Politics UK
Can You Trust Election Polling Data? – TLDR News
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With no serious candidate contesting the upcoming Clacton by-election, Farage’s gamble appears to have backfired with his hopes of shifting the narrative away from his finances thrown in the Bin(face). So what’s actually going to happen now?
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TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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As oil drilling moves closer to reality, we explore how it could transform the Falkland Islands’ economy, politics, and long-running sovereignty dispute with Argentina.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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SOURCES
FT Argentina Angered By Prospect of Oil Boom in Falklands
https://www.ft.com/content/ce25f41d-49e2-42e3-956e-dab0de9301e4?syn-25a6b1a6=1
The Times Drilling to go Ahead at Sea Lion Oilfield
https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/drilling-confirmed-sea-lion-oil-field-rockhopper-falklands-5nz8npwpw
The Times Falkland Islands $4bn Oil Bonanza
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/falkland-islands-4bn-boost-oilfield-go-ahead-6crtkvqzk
Yahoo Finance The Falklands are Turning into a Mini Dubai
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/falklands-quietly-turning-next-dubai-180437990.html
BBC News Quick Guide: The Falklands Economy
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/07/in_pictures_the_falklands_economy/print.stm
0:00 How the Falklands are Becoming a Petrostate
7:07 Sponsor
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📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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In this video, we’re going to have a look into the Clacton by-election, why the other parties have stood down, what Farage’s plan is, and why it seems like it may have already backfired.
📰 Too Long: https://toolong.news/
🎉 TLDR Party: https://toolong.news/pages/tldr-party
📖 Read our Manifesto: https://tldrnews.co.uk/manifesto
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
SOURCES
Telegraph Farage By-Election Gamble Turns to Farce
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/07/07/farage-resigns-but-by-election-gamble-turns-to-farce/
BBC News Farage’s Political Rivals Rule Out Standing in Clacton
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjdg4y3g0z7o
The Guardian Political Rivals Vow to Boycott By-Election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/07/nigel-farage-quits-as-mp-amid-scrunity-over-finances-clacton-reform
Politics Home Labour and Tories Refuse to Field Candidates
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/labour-tories-refuse-stand-candidates-clacton-byelection
Politico Badenoch Says Farage Cracking Under the Pressure
https://www.politico.eu/article/kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-pressure-by-election/
0:00 Nigel Farage vs Count Binface: The Clacton By-Election Explained
6:47 Sponsor
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@wickedleeloopy2115
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
All this proves is news media polls are pointless..if these polls were taken before the pandemic. Alot of the voters could have changed there mind….or even died. So polling it pointless.
@jazminecast.5288
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Basically it’s the equivalent to the puppy bowl
@mastersr1956
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
sure you can, ask hillary
@RickMyBalls
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
As a houseowner I'm offended.
@mayolicious69
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Imagine being someone who can be bothered to poll but not vote…
@anneeq008
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Of course you can, although people have developed some childhood propensity to be hipsters and go against predictions just for the sake of going against the trends
@mabit
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
If you want to stay unbiased then when giving these examples use Party A, Party B.
@Thorpean
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Political reform should be mandatory after the elections. We shouldn't have to do video's on YouTube of how we mistrust our voting system.
@monkeycchain
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
I think it'd be better if election polling wasn't a thing so that people wouldn't be influenced by the poll telling them who's most popular
@thehaffytaffy
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
The YouGov polling is currently suggesting a Tory majority…, 🤔
@JourneyLT
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
So yes, the polls are fake because they don't take into account occurrences that haven't happened before, but now could, or will happen because of changing circumstances. I strongly predict that youth turnout will be much higher than it has been in the last few elections. Rates of young people registering to vote have never been higher than they are right now. Young people are becoming more politically involved.
@Mr_Squarepeg
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Huh interesting 🙂
@justwobert9850
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Techy mistake 08 numbers aren't mobile, 07 numbers are.
@googlebarbaralernerspectre2581
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Everyone I know is voting brexit party…
@HMCarReviews
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
They are trend line tho. If you aggregate all polls you might get a better accuracy but you don't know until the actual results.
@iyamaxx
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
ohh never trust Rasmussen. I know polling is scientific but Rasmussen is incredibly partisan. Check their Twitter it's crazy.
@seanthephilosopher4532
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
That's all fake!
@fisher1907
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
I trust prof John curtice.
Labour are goners
@matthewrichard9626
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Using Survations (MRP) newest poll the Conservative are 14 points ahead and will win with a 108 majority.
@antontzonev5410
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Hey, huge fan, even feeling confident enough to be doing a presentation on brexit at uni because of your channel. That aside, Id say there were some misconceptions in the video from a statistics point of view. I dont believe you can infer that people forget how they voted based on asking a sample at time t1 (before election) and t2 (after election) (not sure if the samples are different or not but still wouldnt matter) of how each person voted. You see, if the sample is the same at both t1 and t2, at t1 a person would report his/her intention to vote for party X, which does not necessarily mean that a person cannot change his/her opinion on the actual election and report a different party at t2. If the sample is different at t1 and t2, well then its just the variance of the samples that results in the difference with the actual result.
@tbrminsanity
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
In Canada there is a source called 338 (owned by the magazine Maclean's). They did a good job predicting the election in Canada using an aggregate method. They were off by 2% in the end.
@paddymccoy
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
No. Designed to galvanise votes.
Massively helped Brexit not get more votes from unvoted sample due to 12/1 odds based on polls.
@damiansmart3269
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Interesting vid, but you forgot the most important thing, who backs/funds each polling company…….
@jaw1630
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Yes I believe you can..14 point lead and just under 4 wks to go… labour hemorrhaging voters up and down country…heartlands wont forget there broken promises…there position on brexit..migration .. xmas has come early for conservatives
@MyCoolMac
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
5/10 = 1/2. 🙂
@deborahhobbins7131
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
no, you cannot trust the polls, ipros Mori rang me and only wanted my sons' vote, not mine as I am too old! same with the under 30's they only want the over 30's to 50's how can that be accurate?
@seandent5141
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
I'd like to see a video translating how a i.e. 38% vote translates into a 10 point lead for example and how that then projects a majority of sayyy 80. I just don't get it & would love some help understanding this
@Super-Sheepy
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
I just baste it on people I know, and the fact so many Labour voters are student's, most students don't care too much about voting or politics and generally are less likely to turn up
@davidcwitkin6729
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Pollsters test for everything BUT age, race, ethnicity, religion, immigration status, sexual orientation, gender identity, and handicap status? WTF? That's NUTS. No wonder they get it wrong.
@SamButler22
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Wasn't not trusting Poles why people voted to leave?
@patrikszabo7966
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
It could also be that some pollsters are paid by one candidate/party or another to misrepresent the public opinion in a way they believe will benefit them. For instance, showing them winning when they're actually predicted to be losing, or showing them to be winning by a slight margin even though the honest poll predicts a landslide victory. Or is that some Eastern Europe specific stuff that doesn't usually happen in better-established democracies?
@trainman07011
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Trust the oddsmakers, how often are they wrong?
@SJW2511
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Can you trust your biased news channel?
@teknobeatno
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
TLDR news, can you please make a video describing the mechanics of First Past The Post system, its pros and cons and alternative systems that are used elsewhere in the world?
@Spookynoises125
January 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
Could we not call researched science "fancy maths". It really feels like its playing into the culture of "we don't need experts"