Politics UK
Are Labour Really Ahead?
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Most if not all British media seems to be reporting that Labour is in for a historic win at the next General Election. How embarrassing it would be for all of us if the polls turned out to be wrong; but could this actually happen, and could Sunak be in power for another five years?
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TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
1 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
2 – https://www.ft.com/content/6d51dca0-b9b3-4e11-96e9-8f9e1066c291
3 – https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-parliament-2015/parliament-politics/general-election-polling-a-matter-of-opinion/
4 – https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/why-did-the-pollsters-get-the-general-election-results-so-wrong/
source
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As oil drilling moves closer to reality, we explore how it could transform the Falkland Islands’ economy, politics, and long-running sovereignty dispute with Argentina.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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SOURCES
FT Argentina Angered By Prospect of Oil Boom in Falklands
https://www.ft.com/content/ce25f41d-49e2-42e3-956e-dab0de9301e4?syn-25a6b1a6=1
The Times Drilling to go Ahead at Sea Lion Oilfield
https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/drilling-confirmed-sea-lion-oil-field-rockhopper-falklands-5nz8npwpw
The Times Falkland Islands $4bn Oil Bonanza
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/falkland-islands-4bn-boost-oilfield-go-ahead-6crtkvqzk
Yahoo Finance The Falklands are Turning into a Mini Dubai
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/falklands-quietly-turning-next-dubai-180437990.html
BBC News Quick Guide: The Falklands Economy
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/07/in_pictures_the_falklands_economy/print.stm
0:00 How the Falklands are Becoming a Petrostate
7:07 Sponsor
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The UK government recently released a green paper outlining plans that could fundamentally change the way YouTube works in the UK – favouring public service broadcasters (like the BBC) and potentially killing independent creators (like us).
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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In this video, we’re going to have a look into the Clacton by-election, why the other parties have stood down, what Farage’s plan is, and why it seems like it may have already backfired.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
SOURCES
Telegraph Farage By-Election Gamble Turns to Farce
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/07/07/farage-resigns-but-by-election-gamble-turns-to-farce/
BBC News Farage’s Political Rivals Rule Out Standing in Clacton
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjdg4y3g0z7o
The Guardian Political Rivals Vow to Boycott By-Election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/07/nigel-farage-quits-as-mp-amid-scrunity-over-finances-clacton-reform
Politics Home Labour and Tories Refuse to Field Candidates
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/labour-tories-refuse-stand-candidates-clacton-byelection
Politico Badenoch Says Farage Cracking Under the Pressure
https://www.politico.eu/article/kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-pressure-by-election/
0:00 Nigel Farage vs Count Binface: The Clacton By-Election Explained
6:47 Sponsor
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It seems pretty much a certainty that Andy Burnham will be the next British prime minister. Exactly when it happens depends on a few factors. We outline some of the reasons an early general election is likely.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that’s not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can’t wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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@janeharris5551
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Tories and labour have ruined this country especially Tony blair nothing will change if either of these 2 get in i wont be voting for either
@dera_ng
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
TLDR can't really hide that they're desperate for the Tories to win 😂😂😂
@Vio818
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Another thing to take into mind is that Polling in UK is based of opinion percentages of whole country and typically isn't done seat by seat. Don't forget going into the 2010 election the lib dems were polling nearly level with labour the highest opinion polling for them ever. They lost 5 seats because national polling can actually hurt a parties results if you end up splitting votes in the seats or if activists are spread too thin because the polling makes them think seats are a given. The FPTP voting system can result is weird things happening even when the national polling showing something different.
@colinmassey527
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Never mind the poling, just look at recent by-election results…
@michaelpopely4408
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
TLDR starting to side with the Tories
@BuddhaofBlackpool
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Why do brits get even mildly involved in this? Both parties are shilling for the WEF. Do a video on that.
@rageagainstmyhatchet
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Labour have not had to face any scrutiny. They have been playing the silent game whilst the Tories eat themselves.
Just wait until they get 6 weeks of hard scrutiny and watch them melt.
@pn2360
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
There's also the factor of WHY people are saying they'll vote labour right now rather than tory. Let's compare it to 97 for the millionth time (sorry but i have to): people voted labour because of BOTH tony blair and to get rid of the tories after 18 years. blair had a massive personality about him that caught on with voters, and made sure that his lead was maintained through to polling day. contrast that to now, where all the noise is around how useless the tories are, but there's no real praise for starmer or labour as a whole. i guess what i'm trying to say is that as we get closer to election day, there's going to be regular tory voters who will still vote tory because the labour proposition isn't that memorable or attractive (while it might be better, it's not eye-catching enough to make people revert from their comfort zone of voting tory). the polls are going to narrow a LOT in my opinion, and starmer's not got any chance of winning 450+ seats as the polls say he will right now, i think it will be around 370-380, so what boris won in 2019. but the advantage for starmer i guess is that while his vote share might not be that massive compared to blair, sunak won't be able to rescue votes from the lib dems or reform uk, and i can genuinely see a situation where reform pick up a seat or two and the lib dems get themselves up to around 35-40.
@svresh
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
the issue I think is typically (e.g. 2017) there are developing circumstances that could change the outcome in the process of the campaings. But with a country this angry, frustrated and tired of the Tories I find it hard to believe a golden egg will fall into their laps and recover the deficit in opinion.
@nobodycares743
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
TLDR really are going all in for backing the tories aren't they
@a1990hussain
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
How many elections have to surprise us before we realise polls can't be trusted
@goodmusicneverdies1302
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Labour will certainly win, the majority of people aren't going to vote tory after all the chaos and the only alternative under a FPTP system is the other of the two established partys (Labour).
Though personally i believe the current voting system is beyond outdated and struggle to call it a Democracy since it doesn't accurately represent or give adequate choice if your views fall further out from the current batch of Conservative/Labour candidates.
@mikeclifford7740
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
I worry that reform will win if I'm honest.
@garethbuckeridge6910
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
The Tory vote will split 4 ways and YES we will get a Labour government. The question is 'will it be a landslide' or 'a LibLab con'?
@DJ-Daz
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
I'm so jaded with politicians, I don't know who to trust. The conservatives have utterly destroyed UK politics. Yet apathy is something they're banking on.
@31Blaize
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
If you really want to know, look at the bookies' odds (and be careful which polls you look at). Campaigning is going to have a huge impact as always and that's not really ramped up yet. That being said, these Tories are about as popular as a fart in a lift.
@extrude22
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Sorry but anybody planning to vote conservative at the next election must be mad. The country is in a compete state of disarray.
@Henners1991
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
I don't want either of them.
@user-xs6bs1gs8l
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
You’re new you shouldn’t be biased towards a size though it is obvious Labour will win
@adamstiff6837
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
I think polls also make people who would otherwise vote for the party that is ahead in the polls off voting (we will any way mentality) and also galvanises the opposition (we all need to vote to be in with a chance mentality).
@dr.victorvs
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Frankly, I don't hold the methodological ability of political scientists in high regard—every field has tons of great people, but they are often in academia—, and statisticians aren't trained to deal with scientific methodology concerns. Their work often begins with the assumption that the data is trustworthy.
@derpmansderpyskin
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
I think we can all agree that it would be pretty crazy if that happened.
@soundscape26
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Would be funnier and much more suspenseful if there weren't any polls. 😄
@garymoffatblues9524
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
Ive never been stopped in the street to be part of any poll or asked online to partake in any poll but im always told who will win in the polls. If i was to guess, and lets face it thats what a poll is, i would say blue bubble gum ice cream totally trumps strawberry flavour with banana flavour no where to be seen, mint ice cream has its takers but not enough to make any difference. Beware of the new mix of bubble, strawberry and vanilla though, they are quietly rising. Remember 2016.
@SnowmanTF2
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
I kind of wonder if part of the poor polling several years ago was a side effect of general decline in traditional media income and related search for cost saving measures in producing their overall product.
@jamesodd3896
January 8, 2024 at 10:35 am
We are fools if we want lib lab con again .