When Russian paratroopers began landing at Hostomel airport in February 2022, many in the media expected a David vs Goliath battle that would end quickly and badly for the Ukrainian defenders.

Instead, we’re here today to have a look at where the war stands more than 1,000 days later.

Of course, with the uptick in escalations recently, a lot of that discussion actually has to focus on the last 14 days, not the last 1,000, but it’s not everyday you see a state fire an experimental IRBM against a city…

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Reading and Sourcing (to be uploaded 25/11 due to delayed upload) :

Russian storage level data used in this episode owes everything the the work of the following:

Covert Cabal – https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal

Jompy – https://x.com/Jonpy99

Highmarsed – https://x.com/highmarsed?lang=en

Dr Jack Watling (May 2024) – Russia is beginning to compound advantages in Ukraine
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-russia-beginning-compound-advantages

Oleksandr V Danylyuk – How to Build Ukraine’s Military Effectiveness and Avoid a War of Attrition
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/how-build-ukraines-military-effectiveness-and-avoid-war-attrition

Ukraine announces the draft of 160,000 more troops
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/30/ukraine-war-briefing-kyiv-announces-draft-of-160000-more-troops

Gallup polling on Ukrainian opinions on negotiations and territorial concessions
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx

Reporting on Interceptor Drones

Ukraine has developed a fixed-wing UAV interceptor

National Survey of Ukraine September – October 2024
https://www.iri.org/resources/national-survey-of-ukraine-sept-oct-2024/

Ukraine to receive 4,000 loitering munitions from Germany

Media: Ukraine to receive 4000 German attack drones with artificial intelligence

Featured Reuters article on drone production rates
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-ramps-up-arms-production-can-produce-4-million-drones-year-zelenskiy-2024-10-02/

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:24 — What Am I Talking About
00:01:55 — Phases Of War
00:05:46 — Allied Steps
00:10:59 — Russian Responses
00:20:17 — The Changing Battlefield
00:26:55 — Russian Force Evolution
00:33:20 — What Limits Russia
00:42:32 — The Ukrainian Force Evolution
00:45:43 — What Limits Ukraine
00:58:27 — Assessing The Balance
01:01:23 — Channel Update

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