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Did Players Fall For the Decoy Wizards Laid For You The TRAP You May Not Be Aware Of
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It’s probably not possible to satisfactorily condense a 12 month’s worth of weird progress in AI, as well as predictions for the year to come, into one video. But I’m gonna try anyway because it has been a very strange time.
http://matsprogram.org/s26-aie
My new app! https://lmcouncil.ai
Patreon Interview: https://www.patreon.com/posts/robot-in-your-27-146376094
Chapters:
00:00 – Introduction
00:34 – Reasoning Models … and limits
02:54 – A playable world
03:36 – Realism
03:50 – AI Slop gone mainstream
05:03 – DolphinGemma
05:39 – Public Mood
07:34 – AI Enlisted
08:30 – GPT-5
11:05 – Open Weight not out
13:00 – METR Breakout
17:30 – VASA-1
18:28 – Lateral Productivity
20:15 – 1 or 1000 benchmarks needed?
24:54 – Continual Learning + Altman on Superintelligence
28:08 – Automated Information Discovery ft AlphaEvolve
Hassabis on Generality: https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2003097405026193809
Gemini 3: https://storage.googleapis.com/gweb-uniblog-publish-prod/original_images/gemini_3_table_final_HLE_Tools_on.gif
Reasoning Trade-offs: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.13837
DolphinGemma: https://blog.google/technology/ai/dolphingemma/?s=09
Genie 3: https://deepmind.google/blog/genie-3-a-new-frontier-for-world-models/
METR Time Horizon: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14499
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
Flaws: https://x.com/ShashwatGoel7/status/2002369517499105443
https://shash42.substack.com/p/how-to-game-the-metr-plot
https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2002203627377574113
GPT-5 – Altman phd in everything: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/14/business/chatgpt-rollout-problems
https://simple-bench.com/
AI Slop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_3vxoJDD9k
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/16/boost-for-artists-in-ai-copyright-battle-as-only-3-per-cent-back-uk-active-opt-out-plan
Survey: https://x.com/SearchlightInst/status/2001057144842387920/photo/1
Nvidia Nemotron: https://x.com/percyliang/status/2000608134205985169
OpenAI Compute Flywheel: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2001363007209914399/photo/1
Altman Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P27Ef-LLuQ
AI in Govt: https://x.com/jdcmedlock/status/1939814516503847259
Benchmark Gaming: https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/07/meta-exec-denies-the-company-artificially-boosted-llama-4s-benchmark-scores/
AlphaEvolve: https://deepmind.google/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/
https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/AlphaEvolve.pdf?utm_source=deepmind.google&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=gdm&utm_content=
Continual Learning: https://abehrouz.github.io/files/NL.pdf
Job Risk: https://archive.ph/20250708204527/https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic
GPT4o: https://x.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1916889492172013989
Vasa-1: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/vasa-1/
Three Views: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines
Turing Test: https://x.com/tunguz/status/1907185471211422147
Karpathy Year in Review: https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/year-in-review-2025/
LLM Brainrot: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.13928
Lateral Productivity: https://www.aisi.gov.uk/frontier-ai-trends-report
Emotional Quotient: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.08394
Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/
Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/
AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained
Reasoning Models would boost results but not change paradigm
Genie 3 makes the world playable (literally, in the case of yesterday’s news)
DolphinDecoding
Veo 3.1 / Sora 2 / Nano Banana Pro / Elevenlabs Voice/Music
But AI slop everywhere
Public attitude very mixed (Hassabis)
AI gets enlisted in government, but too early to tell jobs/productivity impact
GPT 5 underwhelms but steady gain in coding/users/HLE (strange that it has to explain its future revenue)
Chinese models in dogged pursuit (not quite made it to my top 4/council). And soon Nvidia? Not Meta for now but SAM amazing
METR continues but will be misinterpreted
And 5 Points about 2026
Vasa wrong but …
Lateral Productivity + safety report, extends to robotics (Patreon mention/freaky robot clip)
Benchmark analogy (AI-2027/lesswrong charts), Amodei (codex report suggests not) and Sutskever (but recanted) and Altman (phd) were former, Altman not anymore (but must watch out for brain rot), and we can’t even decide how general we are … Hassabis/Yann debate
Information Progress analogy (still 2-3 years more of exquisite compression (Deepthink) and on next phase there are …
…examples already, Alphas (will it reduce the human bottleneck?) + Emotional Quotient
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Monsoon Rainfall Alert : Torrential Downpour Prediction In Current Week | Daily Weather Report
Pakistan Weather Update Today | 14 july Weather Forecast | Today Weather Update | Weather Forecast Pakistan | Weather Update Today | 14 july weather forecast
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Pitti Uomo 109 Visual Report: The Menswear Trends We Saw in Florence l Suit Yourself Podcast #46
Pitti Uomo 109 is not just a menswear fair. It’s a moving runway, a visual mood board, and a real time report on where classic style …
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@LutherDM
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I bought 2 Dr Who collector boxes at $464.00. I have pulled $1,000+ worth of cards. So, I will be sticking to the collector boxes.
If I make that money on the singles market back again, that is.
If it fails to be profitable, I won't buy ANY boxes anymore.
@dustin66896
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I dig the info. However, the problem I see is that the difference between a draft box and a collector box is much different than a small/medium/large popcorn(or any product). The difference between a draft/collector box isn't just size. It's a completely different product. I can do things with a draft box that I cant with a collector(play magic). On the flip side, there are cards in a collector box that I cant pull from a draft box. At least that's how I see it. Having said that, I will only be buying a small amount of this product. The 1 collector pack Ive opened had 3 shock lands in it. I can quit on that note.
@closetmtg8029
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
What value? 1$ shocker challenges 🤟
@Beckola44
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Don't forget that we are seeing a lot of Shock lands being pulled from these box openings and the Shock Lands will be in the Murders At Karlov Manor Clue version. It is NOT worth paying high prices for these sealed boxes. The prices of certain cards WILL tank in the next couple of weeks. Our group are paying $32.00 each for the Commander decks and will wait to buy certain singles. We are avoiding sealed boxes unless there is a huge price reduction. Remember that this is jut another reprint set!!! We have been saving thousands of dollars these past 13 months. Thank you for the video Mox Man.
@DadofCheems
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Always fun to open stuff knowing you didn’t buy it but get content out of it.
@philipjourneay3843
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I might buy it when it tanks… but what's the point when you have 3-4 boxes of the original thing still waiting to be opened…. f*ck the reprint train
@aaronloveday7610
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
The problem with collector boxes is that it has destroyed the rarity of foil card's
@jorgenorberto293
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
With or without decoy, just don't burn your money buying sealed product of this set. It's not worth it. I understand that thrill of opening packs, but for that there's much better options. For ravnica remastered focus on the singles that you want. Example : I could buy cases of collector boxes, it wouldn't be a big deal for me, but I won't. I rather go after those beautiful old frame shock lands and some of the Manga art cards and that's it.
@76girard
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I'm the king of staycations! I earn rhe time off and I utilize it to accomplish other things in life.
@Vapor454
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I stopped paying for sealed.
@pccleric
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Yeah the way Wizards is changing things you can tell how they love decoys. You stick your hand up "her" skirt and find something that isnt supposed to be there.
@paulcarter37
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
It is getting easier per release to say no. This set didn't have much pull over me. Waiting to buy a few singles in a few months.
@angeldillemuthactor
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I actually bout 1 collector pack and pulled some dope stuff. But that's all I bought. Then bought singles today bc prices are almost always the cheapest on the value pieces that will go back up. Got playset of all shock lands for $98
@CasevacDevilDoc
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
They do this alot in those micro transation game. They will show you periodic terrible deals to "reset" your brainhole making the other deals fomo you hard.
Edit: also, wizards is doing alot of this grimey shit on the very urgent behest of hasbro. Golden goose is being milked
@metalgearsolid5881
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I think you came out with better examples for WOTC using the decoy effect in the past…but the Clue Game is not as strong as a decoy since it's a very different product compared to the booster boxes.
@masterdarque
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Boomstick 💢
@999Lucas
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Nice one. I have noticed some of the things youre saying here. The boxes change again, so its easy to get confused, and im re-forming my perspective right here with you.
@jessypalacios9560
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Mox man thank you for this video.🎉
@jessypalacios9560
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I'm going to singles route😊. Just what I need.
@ChickenMcThiccken
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
they want 29.99 for a draft pack of ravnica remastered at walmart. yeah. thanks but no thanks. i want 5.99 packs.
@schmidty2go312
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
You gotta unbutton that top button MoxMan! Relax, look stylish 🙂
@TheDarkElder
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Double Mox man today, yay! One more video and you are Lotus style haha
Along with more vacations also many other things changed, like average work time per week, income etc. It's all pretty dynamic 🙂
@GrimnirsGrudge
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Imagine if they bring back starter decks with the paper rulebook and basic lands.
@unclebob7956
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I really enjoyed your take on this Mox Man, thanks for this video.
@sizzlesticks7217
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
Hitting Us With The Knowledge. Good Lookin Out Moximania🎉🎉🎉
@lancedobbs6021
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
The Shocks should come down by like 60% with the amount they put into these boxes.
@BevBu
January 18, 2024 at 11:23 am
I scoffed at $8 a pack at the store when its likely to have less than $2 in value. I would like to buy packs but it feels bad to always miss and be out so much money.